Market Analysis
How to think about the crypto market like a researcher, understanding cycles, sizing your positions, valuing tokens properly, and taking profit with a plan. Independent analysis for Australian investors. Not financial advice.
Key Takeaways
Research in this topic
Frequently asked questions
How do crypto market cycles work?
Crypto tends to move through repeating phases, accumulation, markup (bull), distribution and markdown (bear), often influenced by Bitcoin halvings and liquidity conditions. Understanding which phase the market is in helps investors position rather than react emotionally.
How much of my portfolio should be in crypto?
There is no single right answer, it depends on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. A position-sizing framework helps you choose an allocation you can hold through volatility without being forced to sell at the wrong time.
When should I take profit in crypto?
Taking profit works best with a plan set in advance, scaling out at predefined levels or rebalancing back to a target allocation, rather than trying to call the exact top. A rules-based approach removes emotion and reduces regret.
What is the difference between market cap and fully diluted valuation?
Market cap counts only tokens currently in circulation, while fully diluted valuation (FDV) assumes the entire future supply is in circulation. A low price with a huge unreleased supply can make an asset far more expensive than it first appears.